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 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 12:25PM
jeg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedragon
Two of the major drawbacks being expressed as a result of the Brexit is that 1) British goods will be subject to duties and tariffs when exporting to the Euro community countries. This could be a huge barrier (remember that existence of such duties was part of the history of Minis being assembled and even manufactured in other countries.)

The Euro community might choose to establish big tariffs as "punishment" for Britain leaving, and as a deterrent to other countries thinking about doing the same thing. I think this is pretty likely. The impact would depend on how much of Britain's exported goods go to the Euro community.

2) The bigger potential hit is that Britain could be considered the financial center of the Euro community. Again, this could be imperiled if the Euro administration decides to hit Britain hard. This is where the exit negotiation stuff gets very touchy, and complicated.

I'm not sure right now what leverage Britain has against the EC, unless Britain represented more than 30% of the destination of the goods and services supplied by the other EC states. The successor to Cameron is going to have a very tricky and difficult job to get good exit terms from what I can tell. 

That's a very practical reason for Cameron to bail out as well, he's lost, so why do that dirty work for the "other side", so to speak? Let the so-called anti-establishment take a crack at these tough problems and see how they do.

But it won't be a huge barrier - tariffs are potentially reciprocal.  Remember that Great Britain is the 5th largest economy and the EU's single largest exporter and let's not forget importer.  UK businesses will continue to sell (and buy) to the EU, just as they currently do.  There's no need for the EU member countries (aka 'states', which is what the EU Commission's ultimate goal is; to strip all autonomy and sovereignty from member countries and create a 'United States of Europe) and my estimate is that the tariffs will remain more or less the same as they are now.  

At least the UK will have the opportunity to decide that it can keep it's vegetables/fish/meat for it's own market if it chooses to.  The UK will continue it's role as a major financial hub and business will continue as normal.  The UK currently trades with non-EU countries, so dealing with the EU members will likely become more one-on-one and put the burden on the EU member.  EU members also trade globally, so no different when dealing with the UK.  They're not going to shoot themselves in the foot by alienating/punishing one of their largest potential customers.  Just like today when dealing with the U.S., Asia, etc...

Immigration will continue - legally, travel will still be possible, trading partners won't disappear, the Irish and Scottish workers will continue to cross the border.  Just as they used to do pre-EU.  It's really no big deal.

The only negative that I can see is that some over-paid politicians will now need to dust off their advisors, roll up their sleeves and actually start acting in consideration of the sovereign nation and its citizens.  The first thing the UK should do is call the national bank and stop their membership dues payment.



I called KC at home on Friday before he left for work, spoke with his better half for quite a while.  I made a bold assumption and after I congratulated her on their victory, not knowing which way they voted, I asked her about several practical aspects.  I asked about their local veggie market - where do the veggies come from, the UK or EU?  Answer, the EU - even though there are lots of local farms.  Same answer for the meat market.  T'would be nice if the local farmers could sell internally as well as export.  And, the flower shop will continue to import from Holland, though local growers might have a chance to enter the market and compete for a share.  

From watching Rick Stein and Hugh Fearnley Whittingstall on TV and listening to the lamentations of not only themselves regarding the state of available foodstuffs, but the producer's frustrations with respect to obtaining market share, I can only assume things will improve.   

My own 'local' country - Denmark, at the moment, has voted a few times to leave the EU, always narrowly staying in.  Pitiful that pork production is huge over here and all I can buy in my local 7 or 8 supermarket chains is from other EU countries.  Same thing with all our veggies.  And industrial products follow suit.  All the farmers have brand new tractors, all on subsidies.  Why???

I agree that the EU has overstepped it's boundaries over time.  Each member country is proud hold sovereignty; ask a Frenchman on the sidewalk where they're from or if they're proud to be French - you'll never hear them say they're proud to be European or they're even European.  No, they're French, from France.  And the other countries are the same.  A Dane will never say that they're European, unless pressed.  They're Danish, from Denmark and proud of it.  The British/UK much the same.  (How many U.K. minis have the EU flag on the roof?)  

The EU would like them to be European first, then French..  Just like in the U.S.; ask someone on the sidewalk, they're not likely proclaiming that they're proud to be Nebraskan, rather American from Nebraska.  But without a common language, currency (across Europe), common elected representative government, there will be neither continuity nor unity.  Nobody, not even the most-subsidized/bailed-out EU member will give up their sovereign identity.  

The EU will soon collapse and it can't be too soon.

The peasants are revolting...          

"Gone with the Wind" - a brief yet moving vignette concerning lactose intolerance

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 12:09PM
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Oh maaan! Now what will happen to the Miss Universe Beauty Pageant? Miss Europe will not be included anymore? Im sad

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 09:08AM
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I doubt we will see much change in pricing.  In the long run tariffs would outweigh currency advantages.

I'm thinking all the attention on Brexit might have a calming effect on NATO activities and Russian escalation.   Last thing we want is another Cold War with Russia.  

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 08:29AM
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It would be like some bureaucratic leaders in Nicaraguans that nobody elected telling the USA how there going to run their country. 

Awesome UK, and the countries within, you're a sovereign nation, time to man up and keep your money. Why sending your hard earned money to other countries that sleep all day, always amazed me. 

George

 

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 08:12AM
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US
thanks a lot for all your responses and for contributing to a healthy discussion on such a big issue for Europe.
As some of you suggest, there are some countries that might be considering leaving the EU as well. Spain would be one of them. They/we are voting tomorrow again to choose a president. General elections were held last December but the votes were so spread out among the four main parties that they could not/ did not want to agree to form a government.
As a result, Spaniards are beckoned to vote again tomorrow. Needless to say that they are quite disappointed, tired and annoyed about this and many are not even going to vote. UK leaving the EU has opened the eyes to many.

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 06:00AM
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CA
This is Farage in The Mirror on May 16th setting up his fall back position if the Leave campaign loses by 4 points 48 to 52% to Remain:

"Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.
Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

The threat by a veteran of the Europhobic struggle to pull Britain out of the European Union illustrates why David Cameron is desperate for a decisive result to avoid “neverendum” uncertainty in the country and Tory ranks.
The Ukip leader’s declaration of defiance raises the prospect of the Brexit brigade copying Scottish Nationalists chivvying for a second independence referendum since losing by 55.3%-44.7% in their 2014 plebiscite on breaking up Britain.

That’s why the Prime Minister’s yearning for a clear victory to answer the Europe question in favour of staying in and quelling Brexit fanatics in his own ranks.  In the event of a defeat Farage, who maintains Britain will vote to quit the EU, would exploit claims the referendum was unfair after the Government dubiously spent £9m on a leaflet to every home."

The result was close 52-48 but the then worried 'loser', now 'winner' will surely change his rhetoric.  Some like to have it both ways...or one could surmise he was then setting up his referendum exit strategy.

Things will get more interesting...the Petition now signed by almost 2 million - with many more weeks to go - for a second referendum is but one story line.

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 03:48AM
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PLEASE...feel free to be critical of our PM....I didn't vote for the jerk and disagree with almost everything he does and says. :)

If it's not Scottish....it's crap! (Cry of the Mini Tartan Owners' Clan)

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 02:48AM
 Edited:  Jun 25, 2016 02:48AM
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Two of the major drawbacks being expressed as a result of the Brexit is that 1) British goods will be subject to duties and tariffs when exporting to the Euro community countries. This could be a huge barrier (remember that existence of such duties was part of the history of Minis being assembled and even manufactured in other countries.)

The Euro community might choose to establish big tariffs as "punishment" for Britain leaving, and as a deterrent to other countries thinking about doing the same thing. I think this is pretty likely. The impact would depend on how much of Britain's exported goods go to the Euro community.

2) The bigger potential hit is that Britain could be considered the financial center of the Euro community. Again, this could be imperiled if the Euro administration decides to hit Britain hard. This is where the exit negotiation stuff gets very touchy, and complicated.

I'm not sure right now what leverage Britain has against the EC, unless Britain represented more than 30% of the destination of the goods and services supplied by the other EC states. The successor to Cameron is going to have a very tricky and difficult job to get good exit terms from what I can tell. 

That's a very practical reason for Cameron to bail out as well, he's lost, so why do that dirty work for the "other side", so to speak? Let the so-called anti-establishment take a crack at these tough problems and see how they do.

DLY
 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 02:16AM
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Isn't England a big manufacturer and exporter of autos, and isn't a weakened pound a good thing for the sales price of those exported autos? A weak Yen had been Japan's secret weapon in the auto business for many years.

People react to hearing their currency has fallen as a blow to their ego and miss the trade benefits it provides. In fact, the Americans on this very board are saying how many mini parts they want to buy "while they are cheap", which is usually a good thing for business.

 Posted: Jun 25, 2016 12:39AM
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CA
Geeeez bikewiz, go easy on me, l'm just a dumb Canadian, what do l know ?

But always glad to know you were a past satisfied customer

Stay healthy

Big AL

[email protected]

Niagara Ontario Canada

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 11:07PM
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US
I see that UK citizens bought a record billion UK pounds worth of gold This Friday, as the Pound slid against most currencies to record lows.  This is a very complex issue.  I doubt that anyone fully understands all the ramifications. there will be advantages and disadvantages to all concerned and it will take a long time to sort it out.  Only thing for sure is that the poor will get poorer and the rich, richer.  Meanwhile, I am going to order a boat load of Mini parts at this rate and maybe buy some more gold while I'm at it; The US dollar can't hold up much longer either. Actually, the Yen was the only winner today. 

Retired manufacturer of VTEC/Mini performance conversion kits

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 04:59PM
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US
The devil you know is better than the devil you don't. I hope none of you are fat in your investments with GBP because you're in for a real rough ride down. When the Pound is one to one with the US dollar we'll see if the markets think the Brexit was a good idea.

Oh and Big Al, no offense you're Canadian, so leave my president out of this, he didn't cast a vote to leave or stay so this wasn't his fight, and he's none of your business. I don't criticize your PM's response to this so don't criticize my president's.

 

 

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 04:08PM
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you can't make omelets without breaking any eggs! I for one voted not to join the first time and If I was still living there would have voted for a quick exit. As has been noted the EU is not the same as we voted for at the time as the name change tells you. We voted to join the "common market" we were told nothing about a loss of soveranty to go with the market! and that has what has happened simple things like losing the British passport and having a EU one instead the change to the euro currency, which at least the UK Gov't realized would cause an uprising among the people if they agreed to it. Every Gov't has huge spending problems now times that by two? paying for two vast overbloated goverments is not ideal is it? Anyway time will tell, we trade globally not just with the EU if tariffs are imposed? Well it works both ways does it not?

Mini's are like buses they come along in a bunch

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 02:39PM
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CA
Things will get very interesting....

Given all the knocks against a European future and open & alleged dissatisfaction with countries & peoples hither & yon...how long will it be before conflicting agendas arise as they did in the past?   I don't know...but bad vibes seem to be on the ascendant.

Great Britain may not long survive and become Lesser Britain minus Scotland & Northern Ireland.  Surely the UK Parliament can not deny to Scotland & Northern Ireland a vote on separation from the UK given the wild cheering by some over the Brexit results?

This is a big, big story barely 70 years after the last World War.

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 01:07PM
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Most people who voted for leave, knew it was going to become a rough ride, but still worth it to get rid of this monstrosity in Brussels. Britains EU Referendum looks as though it's going to have a snowball effect.
France is now making noises about wanting a say on their Membership, with Sweden, Holland also lining up for a Referendum. This is not the entity that we signed up to in 1975. It has grown into a lopsided monster.
Its a fact that all the Southern European States, like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal have no real Industrial base, relying almost entirely on Tourism, and handouts from EU. The latest candidates from the former Eastern Bloc are in a similar predicament. Then you have Turkey lurking on the sidelines wanting to join. They have a Muslim population of 77 million and apart from the Tourist venues, are poor as church mice. 
If you had a customer buying 860,000 cars from you every year, would you slam the door in their face?
Thats what GB takes from the German manufacturers every year.
The French are also useless when it comes to Farming, and are heavily subsidized, because their farms are too small and inefficient. Greece? Lazy as a cats hairy, and expert at cooking the books to gain access to the Golden Goose in Brussels. Spain and Greece's youngsters are growing up with no job prospects, so they are having to leave their home country and go elsewhere to try and find work.
The original Common Market idea was great in principal, but as it's grown larger, it's overstepped its authority and is now dictating laws and policy to sovereign Countries. Cameron was toothless and alleged he'd got a great deal for GB, when in actual fact he'd got nothing. He at least did the honorable thing and resigned.
Im glad we are going to have control again over our borders and Law systems. Yes, it's going to be hard times ahead, but the alternative is worse in the long run.
Regarding a 2nd Referendum for Scottish Independence...Sturgeon is desperate to push ahead, but I think she would be better taking a step back, as the electorate are sick and tired of bloody Referendums. Jim

Saor Alba

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 11:09AM
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hunter2.. I totally disagree with you.  like Dr Mini said .this is GREAT thing  the UK..  the UK  was sending  1 BILLION quid a MONTH to Bruxelles to prop up the EU..   how can NOT keeping the money at home NOT a good thing.??. I really would NOT want all refugees from SYRIA..  now the UK can have proper passport CONTROL...most folks know that  I am a yellow dog democrat.. and  support bernie and hillary..   but come on now.. b c

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 10:55AM
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CA
The UK story will get more & more interesting...Scotland & Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU.  Wales voted to leave.  Scotland likely to see another vote to separate...all because of some pissy-assed Tories in Cameron's caucus who now need to pay far closer attention to the iconic phrase 'Mind The Gap'.  Great Britain looks to be potentially going down the drain...contrary to Dear Donald's comment on arriving in Scotland (does he ever learn anything?).

3-4 points does not a landslide make one way or the other.  Interesting too that Farage, a leading Brexit campaigner & party leader, said (within hours of the ballots being counted) the promise of 350 Million Pounds Sterling per week [approx. 6 GBP per person] to the National Health Service was a "mistake".  But it got the schemer the elderly vote.

The UK story will get more & more interesting.  Stay tuned and Mind The Gap!

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 10:17AM
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I think Mitch has just promised to do everything he can to make sure Obama will only be a two-tern president...

It's been fun, but this place is done. I have no hatred, and appreciate the good times. But this place now belongs to Tony and his pink mini. 

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 09:42AM
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CA
OBOMA, A great statesman, just told Britain that they would be at the end of the que now that they are leaving the ECU

Can't you guys get rid of him ?

Big AL

[email protected]

Niagara Ontario Canada

 Posted: Jun 24, 2016 08:13AM
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Uh, our host gets his supply of parts from the UK...

"Retired:  No Job, No Money, Wife and I!  Will travel anywhere for Minis"

[email protected]

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